PV Profiles Resume Production After the Holiday: When Will Downstream Demand Improve? [SMM Analysis]

》View SMM Aluminum Product Prices, Data, and Market Analysis

》Subscribe to View SMM Historical Metal Spot Prices

SMM, February 7

PV Aluminum Extrusion:After the holiday, leading PV aluminum extrusion enterprises have gradually resumed production, with the operating rate of some top suppliers currently recovering to around 80%. However, overall demand for PV aluminum extrusion has not shown significant improvement, mainly because downstream module manufacturers' production schedules in February remain at low levels. Some module manufacturers indicate that production is expected to return to normal levels in March, which may drive aluminum consumption in the later period. Additionally, the unit consumption of aluminum for PV frames has stabilized, while the market share of aluminum solar panel mounting brackets continues to shrink, primarily due to cost-cutting considerations by enterprises.

Raw Material Prices:During the period (2025.01.27-2025.02.07), the center of post-holiday spot aluminum average prices shifted upward. The SMM A00 weekly average price stood at 20,240 yuan/mt, remaining stable compared to the previous week's average price. Overall, from a macro perspective, the US Fed has no short-term plans for an interest rate cut, US economic growth is slowing, the Eurozone economy is stagnating and continues to cut interest rates, and global economic recovery faces challenges. EU sanctions are intensifying, US tariffs are exerting pressure, and the global aluminum market is expected to undergo structural adjustments due to policy impacts in the short term. Continuous attention is needed on changes in US and European trade policies and demand trends in major consumer markets. Fundamentals side, the pressure of aluminum supply recovery has re-emerged, with domestic aluminum operating capacity expected to rise slowly in February. The average spot price of alumina in February is expected to drop significantly, further driving down aluminum costs and weakening cost-side support. On the demand side, it is still the off-season, but with the end of the Chinese New Year holiday, aluminum processing enterprises are gradually resuming production, and consumption is expected to recover step by step. The recovery in east China is better than expected, providing support for aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust, with recent focus on the progress of tariff-related events, changes in aluminum ingot inventory during the holiday, and the pace of post-holiday downstream resumption.

》Click to View the SMM Aluminum Industry Chain Database